Eschew Obfuscation: Peak oil, not speculation

Peak oil, not speculation

Max Dunn — Tue, 12 May 2009 08:53:00 -0700

by Steven Kopits, Managing Director, Douglas-Westwood, New York, 5/11/2009

NEW YORK: In seeking to explain the run up in oil prices from 2004 to 2008, commentators often turn to “speculation” as the primary cause. While speculation – or at least a kind of piling-on – may have explained the very late stages of the oil price rally, the willingness to attribute oil prices primarily to financial investors – as the CBS news show ‘60 Minutes’ did a few months back – risks drawing the wrong lesson from the period. Let’s re-wind the clock and recall the events of the time.

"Peak oil, not speculation" by Max Dunn

Tue, 08 Feb 2011 13:46:28 -0800

Krugman also supports the theory that the run-up of oil prices was not caused by speculation. He says that speculation can only affect commodity prices through accumulation of physical inventories.

Reference: Signatures of Speculation

"Peak oil, not speculation" by Max Dunn

Thu, 30 Sep 2010 07:57:17 -0700

Here is another analysis that supports the theory that the run-up of oil prices in 2008 was caused by a basic supply and demand imbalance:

Trends in World Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Exports/Imports