Slippery Slope: Cantarell Leading the Way?

Max Dunn — Thu, 01 May 2008 10:10:00 -0700

Once everyeone realizes that oil production has peaked, the main factor on whether the world can make an orderly transition to renewable energy depends mainly on how fast production falls. If oil production falls slowly, we will be able to build up our alternative energy infrastructure with only major inconveniences. However, if it falls rapidly, dire consequences could result including recession, famine and war.

The best way to tell whether the decline will be fast or slow is to look at existing large oil fields that are in decline. If we base this on Cantarell, the news is not good.

Cantarell was the second largest producing oil field in the world. It peaked in 2004 and production fell 31% in the following 3 years. This year, it will likely decline by 18%. At this rate, production from Cantarell will drop by 80% in just 5 years.

Let’s hope that Cantarell is not indicative of the other super-giant oil fields, or the world would be in for severe trouble.

"Slippery Slope: Cantarell Leading the Way?" by Max Dunn

Sat, 23 Aug 2008 21:45:47 -0700

Wow, the decline in Cantarell is happening much faster than anyone every imagined. In the first 7 months of 2008, Cantarell produced 1.12 mbd, a fall of 36% over the same period in 2007!

Pemex annual oil output slides

Pemex Financial Results June 2008 (See Table A1, Page 30)

Eschew Obfuscation: Slippery Slope: Cantarell Leading the Way?

Slippery Slope: Cantarell Leading the Way?

"Slippery Slope: Cantarell Leading the Way?" by Max Dunn